{"id":6821,"date":"2014-11-06T15:54:44","date_gmt":"2014-11-06T15:54:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/?p=6821"},"modified":"2014-11-06T15:59:46","modified_gmt":"2014-11-06T15:59:46","slug":"van-registrations-climb-18-in-october-but-rigid-truck-registrations-rise-by-122-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/archives\/6821","title":{"rendered":"Van registrations climb 18% in October, but rigid truck registrations rise by 122% &#8212; here&#8217;s why"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>New van registrations rose by 18.2% to 26,570 units in October, while the truck market staged a dramatic comeback, with new registrations rising by 65.7% to 8,457 units, according\u00a0to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).<\/p>\n<p>On a rolling 12 month\u00a0basis, new van registrations are up by 19.1% this year, while truck registrations are now 12.1% higher:<\/p>\n<p><strong>UK van and truck registrations: 2014 and % change on 2013<\/strong><\/p>\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"590\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\"><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>October<\/strong><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>% change<\/strong><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Year-to-date<\/strong><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>% change<\/strong><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Rolling year<\/strong><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>% change<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Vans<\/strong><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">26,570<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">18.2%<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">268,641<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">18.1%<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">312,237<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">19.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Trucks<\/strong><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">8,457<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">65.7%<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">35,842<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">-9.2%<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">52,603<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">12.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Total<\/strong><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">35,027<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">27.0%<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">304,483<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">14.1%<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">364,840<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">18.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>Source: Data courtesy of SMMT<\/em><\/p>\n<h3>What&#8217;s behind the changes?<\/h3>\n<p>Van sales have been strong all year, and\u00a0October&#8217;s figures\u00a0suggest that strength is likely to persist\u00a0until the end of the year. Underlying economic growth must be one of the factors contributing to this\u00a0year&#8217;s strong performance, but I believe there are others, too, namely:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Fleet renewals that were delayed during the recession but can not economically be delayed any further<\/li>\n<li>Strong used van prices and improved\u00a0finance availability means that buying new may make more sense than buying used; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/archives\/6728\">I&#8217;ve written at length<\/a> about the\u00a0massive increase in used prices over the last two years and the poor availability of\u00a0nearly-new models &#8212; although this situation <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/archives\/6650\">may be starting to change<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As for trucks, sales have declined steadily this year, following a surge of sales ahead of the introduction of Euro 6 emissions rules.\u00a0The distortion caused by Euro 6 now seems to be dropping out of the figures, although as\u00a0Mike Hawes, the SMMT&#8217;s chief executive, explains, we\u00a0should be careful not to read too much into one month&#8217;s figures:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cOctober marks the first month of 2014 in which truck registrations have seen positive growth, given the paucity of demand following the introduction of Euro-6. While encouraging, we should treat such a sharp percentage increase with caution, owing to a relatively small total market and new type approval regulations coming into force at the end of the month.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I&#8217;ll come back to Mr Hawes&#8217; comments about type approval in a second, but first, let&#8217;s take a look at how these\u00a0new registrations\u00a0break down.<\/p>\n<h3>What&#8217;s selling, what&#8217;s not?<\/h3>\n<p>As always, there were significant\u00a0differences in new registrations across the different segments of the van\u00a0and truck market.<\/p>\n<p>In the van market, the big volume gains were seen in the 2.0-2.5t and 2.5-3.5t segments, where sales rose by 48.2% and 12.5% respectively. The 2.5-3.5t segment is by far the largest in the LCV sector,\u00a0and accounted for 15,123 of the 26,570 sales in October.<\/p>\n<p>In the truck market, the differences were even more pronounced &#8212; and lend support to Mr Hawes&#8217; comments about reserving judgement on this month&#8217;s figures. Here&#8217;s why:\u00a0sales of rigid trucks between 6t and 16t rose by 114% in October, compared to the same month last year, while sales of rigids over 16t rose by a massive 174%!<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, sales of\u00a02-axle artics\u00a0<em>fell\u00a0<\/em>by 14.7% and 3-axle artics (standard for most UK work) rose by a more measured 10.4%.<\/p>\n<p>These figures do suggest to me that\u00a0there is an underlying reason\u00a0for the sudden surge in truck sales, which may not be repeated next month: I suspect that the type approval deadline triggered a surge of discounted sales of new trucks which\u00a0would not have been compliant after the introduction of the new rules.<\/p>\n<p>This is why: rigid trucks typically have\u00a0bodies supplied and fitted by third parties, and so bodybuilding\u00a0companies which\u00a0have failed to get type approval for their products will have been keen to push as many out of the door last month as possible. Similarly, truck buyers may be pre-purchasing rigid truck chassis so that they can evade the type approval registrations by having new bodies fitted post registration (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/archives\/4014\">a workaround<\/a> I&#8217;ve discussed previously that&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/archives\/6713\">obviously being pursued by some buyers<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ll have to wait until next month to find out, but\u00a0I&#8217;d be very surprised if\u00a0truck\u00a0registrations are maintained at this level next month, although the outlook for vans should remain similar &#8212; especially with pre-Christmas demand from couriers for\u00a03.5t models\u00a0likely to be\u00a0strong.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Van registrations were strong and in-line with recent trends last month, but the truck market saw a bizarre surge of registrations that seems likely to have an underlying cause, as I explain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[8],"tags":[310,1885],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6821"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6821"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6821\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6829,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6821\/revisions\/6829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}