{"id":7385,"date":"2015-04-20T16:27:57","date_gmt":"2015-04-20T16:27:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/?p=7385"},"modified":"2015-04-20T16:27:57","modified_gmt":"2015-04-20T16:27:57","slug":"used-van-values-expected-to-fall-by-up-to-10-by-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/archives\/7385","title":{"rendered":"Used van values expected to fall by up to 10% by 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"James

James Davis, head of commercial vehicles at Manheim<\/p><\/div>\n

Used van values could fall by up to 10%\u00a0between now and 2020, according to James Davis, head of commercial vehicles at\u00a0Manheim,\u00a0one of the UK’s largest vehicle\u00a0auctioneers.<\/p>\n

The firm has one of the largest databases of used vehicle data in the UK,\u00a0and has recently analysed the trends seen in the used van market over the last five years.<\/p>\n

The results may surprise you: despite the average used van being 12 months older\u00a0and having 8,200 extra miles on it, when it\u00a0is de-fleeted by its first owner and hits Manheim’s\u00a0salesrooms, it now sells for 9.5% more than it would have done in 2010.<\/p>\n

At the start of the current decade, the average age of a van sold by Manheim was\u00a04.5 years. Today that figure is 5.5 years, demonstrating how the worst recession in recent decades forced many van operators to\u00a0extend fleet\u00a0replacement cycles and run older vans for longer.<\/p>\n

Big van price explosion<\/h3>\n

The biggest volume sector of the van market is the large panel van, and here the changes have been slightly different.\u00a0The average age of large vans hitting the salerooms has only risen by 4 months over the last five years, but the average selling price has exploded, rising by 33% in just five\u00a0years.<\/p>\n

To me, this suggests that buyers were getting desperate for additional vans but couldn’t enter the new market, so were happy to pay over the odds. In my view, this is a price rise that is almost certain to\u00a0unwind, possibly quite dramatically.<\/p>\n

I suspect we’ll see a fall of more than 10% in this sector, especially as\u00a0Manheim says that the average age profile in this sector remains high: 37% of the large panel vans sold by the firm in the first quarter of 2015 were more than seven years old.<\/p>\n

The latest SMMT figures show that the majority of the volume increase in new registrations<\/a> is in the large panel van sector. If this continues, it could flush out a large number\u00a0of older vans onto the used market, weakening prices.<\/p>\n

The outlook for used vans<\/h3>\n

Mr Davis’s estimate is that used van prices could\u00a0“re-align”<\/em> (that’s fall) by up to 10% by 2020. That seems a reasonable estimate, although\u00a0if the current economic growth continues, I wouldn’t be surprised if the fall is\u00a0greater,\u00a0especially in the overheated large van market, as I explained above.<\/p>\n

Manheim’s view matches that of competitor BCA<\/a>, and this should be\u00a0good news for used van buyers: over the next 2-3 years, better quality, younger used stock should start coming\u00a0onto the market in greater volumes,\u00a0as fleet replacement periods return to historic norms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Manheim’s CV expert James Davis reckons used van values could fall by up to 10% before 2020, as the market returns to more normal replacement cycles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[8],"tags":[1842],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7385"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7385"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7385\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7391,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7385\/revisions\/7391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vanrental.co.uk\/vanblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}