The latest commercial vehicle sales figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) show that March was another disappointing month for van sales, which fell by 11.1% compared to March 2011.

Heavier Vans?

Both January and February saw declining sales of commercial vehicles under 3.5t, and March’s figures disappointed again, although a closer look suggests that the situation is not quite as bad as might have been thought:

Let’s look at each category and see how bad things really are:

• Pickups: There’s no denying it, sales of these popular but expensive and thirsty vehicles have plummeted. Perhaps it’s a sign that small business owners who have previously enjoyed the tax perks of owning one of these (you can claim back the VAT but they’re like cars inside) are cutting back and owning more economical vehicles.
• 4x4s: A small improvement in this specialist sector (it only includes van variants of 4×4 car models), which is positive – especially considering how mild most of the winter was.
• Vans <2.0t: At first glance, these numbers are disastrous. But I wonder whether part of the explanation is the changing weight profile of smaller vans. As new model revisions of popular small vans are being launched, the plated weights of these vans are rising. Every variant of the new Vauxhall Combo, for example, is plated at over 2,000kg. I’m pretty sure the old model was plated at under 2,000kg. The figures from the SMMT could simply be a reflection of changing vehicle specifications.
• Vans 2.0t – 2.5t: Sure enough, the 2.0t – 2.5t category saw a big rise in sales in March, albeit not big enough to cancel out the fall in sub-2.0t sales. It’s also interesting to note that on a rolling year basis, sales in this category are up 14.5%, compared to an 8.9% fall in the sub-2.0t category.
• Vans 2.5t – 3.5t: An 8.3% decline in big van sales suggests that many van operators are extending their replacement cycles or shrinking their fleets. These figures are not catastrophic, however, and represent a 5.3% increase on a rolling year basis.

What’s Happening To HGV Sales?

Sales of heavy goods vehicles are diverging rapidly. Artic sales were down 18.3% in March compared to the same period last year – but rigids bucked the trend, recording an amazing 55% increase over March 2011.

Van and Truck registrations from Dec 2007 to date (courtesy of SMMT)

On a rolling year basis, the figures smoothed out somewhat – artic sales are up 26.2% over the last 12 months while rigid sales are up 24.8%.

This divergence suggests two possible meanings. Companies are using rigids for work formerly done by artics – perhaps achieving fuel savings and greater loading efficiencies – or the underlying economic trend is downwards, resulting in weakening demand for the largest lorries.

What do you think? Are rigids replacing artics or is there another explanation?

I’d be very interested to hear from anyone with an insight into the massive growth in rigid sales.