Even the most talented spin doctor would fail to put this year’s new van registration figures in a positive light.

Van registrations fell by 16.4% in November, leaving them down by 7.4% for the year-to-date. Truck registrations followed suit, falling by 13.7%, although they are still up by 9.9% on the year-to-date.

UK van and truck registrations: 2012 and % change on 2011

Source: SMMT

However, dire figures didn’t stop SMMT Chief Executive Paul Everitt from attempting to put a positive spin on the van market:

“This year has seen the van market re-adjust after bouncing back from recession, while truck volumes have been steady. We look forward to next year where greater stability should see the van market return to slow, but steady growth.”

I think that “bouncing back from recession” is a pretty optimistic way to describe the van market over the last three years. Looking at the graph below, I think that the van market’s recovery could best be described as stalled, with little evidence that next year will be any better:

SMMT van and truck registrations Dec 2007 - Nov 2012

What the graph above doesn’t really show is how much van sales have fallen since last year. What’s more, they remain below the average level seen between 2003 and 2008:

SMMT annual van registrations Nov 2008 - 2012

While a shortage of decent quality used vans could eventually be a catalyst for growth in new van registrations, I’m not convinced that this will happen as soon as next year.