Commercial vehicle manufacturing output rose by 5% in October, but remains down 6.1% on the year-to-date.

After September’s 20% slump in commercial vehicle (CV) manufacturing output, October’s 5% increase is welcome good news, although the year-to-date figure remains down by 6.1%. The gain was due to a surge in domestic demand, which rose by 10.5% in October, although it remains down by 5.6% on the year-to-date, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

Export demand remained weak in October, as European markets continue to struggle with the impact of the eurozone crisis and widespread recession. Exports rose by just 1% in October and remain 6.5% lower over the year-to-date.

No recovery for vans

Perhaps the biggest worry is that CV manufacturing simply hasn’t recovered since markets crashed in 2009 — unlike car manufacturing, which has returned to 2007 levels, as these two graphs show:

UK car and CV manufacturing October 2012 (courtesy of SMMT)

I believe that the slowdown in van sales represents the true depth of the UK’s recession — while in private people have continued to buy new cars using borrowed money if necessary, small businesses have found that credit is much harder to get and less desirable to have, given the pressures many are under to survive.

Of course, next year’s closure of Ford’s Southampton factory will depress the figures even further, as thousands of Transit vans that would have been built in the UK will now be built abroad. Good news could be severely rationed for some time yet…