The price of a typical SWB Transit has risen by 48% since 2010 — but CAP believes prices may go into reverse later this year (image courtesy of CAP Automotive)

I’ve commented on the seemingly unending rise of used van values many times over the last couples of years.

After all, when the average value of a used van at auction rises by 24% in two years, despite an increase in average mileage and age, something must be out of balance, in terms of supply and demand.

What’s more, imbalances like this can only continue for a limited period before something happens to correct them — in this case, a rise in supply that should finally start to satisfy strong demand.

Tim Cattlin, a commercial vehicles forecast values expert at automotive information specialist CAP Automotive, has stuck his neck out and suggested that the boom in used values is likely to slow by the end of 2014. Since CAP publishes the price guides used in the trade to value vehicles, his predictions might be worth more than most.

Cattlin says that the rise in values for used vans was sparked by the collapse in new van sales when Britain fell into recession. This led to a dramatic reduction in the number of used vans available in the market and as economic recovery began to gather pace, demand quickly outstripped supply.

Since September 2010 the CAP Red Book independent benchmark value of a 3 year old short wheelbase Ford Transit, with 60,000 miles, has rocketed from £4,800 to £7,100 – an increase of 48%:

“Nobody in the industry, including ourselves, anticipated the rate at which demand has increased”, says Cattlin. “Economic recovery has therefore unleashed serious pent up demand into the auction halls and onto the trader’s pitch.”

Now Cattlin believes the recovery of new van registrations in 2011 spells an impending end to the rise in van values as early as the end of 2014. A growing number of these vehicles will begin to return to the used market and help to rebalance supply and demand:

“We believe the market for used light commercial vehicles will remain buoyant for the next few months but values will begin to ease later in the year.

“Quite how pronounced this softening will be, remains to be seen, but a pivotal point may well be the typically quiet period over Christmas. We will therefore be watching particularly carefully to see if the normally strong recovery in January is as pronounced as usual.”

We will be watching too, and will publish the latest data here as soon as they become available.