The last three years have seen the average age of used vans at auction rise steadily, as fleet operators extended their replacement cycles in an effort to defer capital expenditure and new debt commitments.

I’ve commented many times on the ever-rising prices seen at BCA LCV auctions — most recently yesterday — but today, some figures from Manheim, another auctioneer (or ‘remarketing specialist’), have dropped into my inbox, shedding some additional light on the rising age profile of vans at auction.

At Manheim’s March auctions, 48% of large panel vans sold (> 3.0t) were more than five years old, a proportion that increased to 53% for panel vans under 3.0t, and 64% of small vans. James Davis, Manheim’s head of commercial vehicles, believes that the extended replacement cycles seen over the last couple of years could become the new norm, as they don’t seem to have caused any problems for operators:

I believe it will be two to three years before the pre-recessionary age profile potentially returns to the wholesale market. The big question is: have first life operators, as a consequence of extending replacement cycles, enjoyed the reliability of modern day vans and decided to run their newly acquired vans longer?

If the average age at which fleet vans are injected into the used market does remain above historic averages, then logically this should trigger falls in used values, especially as new sales rise. Matthew Davock, head of LCVs at Manheim, tentatively suggests that we might have reached a turning point:

We believe this likely represents an important watershed moment in the wholesale market, signalling what might be the final major tranche of older, extended vans entering the used marketplace. Looking ahead, we predict we will see similar age and mileage profiles, albeit in lower volumes. These older lower mileage vans are good news as they are an attractive price point”

Although it’s always difficult to call the top or bottom of a market, it’s worth remembering that change usually catches most people by surprise. Therefore the fact that the market has now become used to paying more for older vehicles, and expects this situation to continue, could be a sign that things are about to start changing.

Watch this space.