Will we soon see an end to the restructuring-induced decline in UK commercial vehicle manufacturing? CV output from UK factories fell by a cringe-inducing 32% in May compared to the same period last year, according to the latest SMMT figures, but SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes believes that when last year’s cuts drop out of the monthly figures this summer, we could see a rosier picture:
“UK commercial vehicle output continued to feel the effects of last year’s production restructuring with volumes down 32% in May. There is light at the end of the tunnel, however, as we look forward to the end of this impact in late summer,” said Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive. “The next few months will also see new models rolling off UK assembly lines, which will help boost production numbers.”
Here are the latest UK CV production figures:
| CV manufacturing | May-13 | May-14 | % Change | YTD-13 | YTD-14 | % Change |
| Total | 7,560 | 5,127 | -32.2% | 40,037 | 30,917 | -22.8% |
| Home | 3,662 | 2,937 | -19.8% | 20,227 | 15,349 | -24.1% |
| Export | 3,898 | 2,190 | -43.8% | 19,810 | 15,568 | -21.4% |
| % export | 51.6% | 42.7% | 49.5% | 50.4% |
Data courtesy of SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)
It’s certainly true that the introduction of the new Luton-built Vauxhall Vivaro could trigger a surge of sales from patriotic buyers who’ve been holding off replacing their old vans until the new model is available, but what Mr Hawes is really talking about is what the financial industry likes to call ‘rebasing’ — getting used to a new [lower] normal.
In other words, it’s now structurally impossible for CV manufacturing to rise to the levels seen in 2008, or even 2012. The best we can hope for is that the relentless decline shown on these graphs comes to a halt soon:
Rolling year CV output (left) and CV output year-to-date (right), courtesy of SMMT
Will that downward slope flatten out soon?