Used van prices have now risen above the peak pre-recession levels seen in 2006, according to auction specialist, Manheim.

The firm extended its usual five-year reporting window to eight years, in order to compare today’s market conditions with those before the financial crisis.

The resulting analysis shows that despite vans being an average of nine months older, with 12,000 more miles on the clock, buyers in auction halls and online in 2014 are having to bid an average of 45%, or £1,500, more than they would back in 2006 to secure them.

Of course, one explanation for this is that cash-strapped businesses have been finding it difficult to get finance and have chosen to buy used, for cash, rather than buy new. New van registrations have been weak for much of the last six years, and are only now beginning to get close to the 2007 level of 300,000+ new vans per year.

The fall in new sales created a corresponding surge in demand for used vans, but Matthew Davock, head of light commercial vehicles at Manheim, says that despite this, the firm didn’t expect used van values to rise so strongly:

“2006 and 2007 were widely acknowledged as the “boom” years in the new and used van markets. When new van registrations collapsed by 50% in 2009 a corresponding used van supply time bomb was set.

So, when combining this with subsequent “bust” and post recessionary recovery and the critical reliance on commercial vehicles by UK Plc, perhaps it is of little surprise to see that the used market has surged. What is so remarkable is that, despite considerable increases in average mileage and age we have witnessed such an inflation of used van values.”

Manheim is now expecting average selling prices to remain broadly stable over the next 12-18 months, as the firm’s head of commercial vehicles, James Davis, explains:

“The only destabilising market factor will be a significant increase in supply over an extended period; yet there are few signs that de-fleet volumes will track this way over the next 12 to 18 months.

Instead I believe it more likely that we’ll see a steady increase due to both economic recovery and new registration growth. This, combined with a corresponding reduction in the number of extended vans, will see average age fall. Given the last 8 years these two may even balance each other out resulting in the average selling price remaining at the current levels.”

I agree with Mr Davis’ logic, but I think it’s also worth considering how many buyers will shift from buying used to buying new — this could accelerate the creation of a supply surplus in the used market and create price weakness slightly earlier than expected.