New van registrations leapt by 10.2% in July according to the SMMT — but are the numbers all they seem to be?
After months and months of declines, new van registrations jumped by a fairly astonishing 10.2% in July, according to the latest monthly figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. The news provoked some speculation on Twitter about how such a dramatic reversal was possible, given that the economy hasn’t improved.
Contract hire specialist (and legendary self-promoter!) Ling Valentine reckoned it was down to a boost in pre-registered vans, while another commentator tweeted that the boost was due to a huge delivery of new vans to Royal Mail plus a couple of other fleet deals — leaving retail figures broadly unchanged (not good…):
RT
@waynesworldauto: So, good news cars UP 9.3% – vans 8.1% Great job everyone! > Not really great -they’re STUFFING PRE-REGs in the market!— Ling Valentine (@LINGsCARS) August 6, 2012
@lingscars@waynesworldauto Van Market skewed by loadsa Peugeots going into the Post Office and some fleet volumes. “Retail” far from 10% up— Gareth Kaye (@gazthevanman) August 6, 2012
What About The Numbers?
On the face of it, the SMMT van and truck registration figures for July are pretty good:
- Commercial vehicle registrations (vans and lorries) up 8.1% in July and up 2.9% on a rolling year basis
- Van registrations up 10.1% in July and stable at -0.1% on a rolling year basis
- Truck registrations came in at -2.2% in July but are up 22.4% on a rolling year basis, after many strong months
Here’s what it looks like on a graph — the solid dark blue line represents vans:
SMMT Commercial vehicle registrations 2007-2012 (courtesy of SMMT)
Next month’s figures should give a more accurate idea of whether this is a one-off event boosted by pre-registered vehicles and big fleet deals or a genuine change of trend. Personally, I don’t see why the van market would suddenly improve, given the state of the economy — but stranger things have happened.
Watch this space…