Van registrations edged up by 1.1% in September, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). So does this represent a return of stability to the market?

SMMT chief executive Paul Everitt certainly thought so, commenting:

“The September plate change provided enough of a boost to stabilise van demand in a challenging economic environment. Continuing the trend seen so far this year, light rigids performed strongly in the month growing 23.4%, while light vans and pickups reversed recent declines, recording rises of 8.8% and 17.2% respectively.”

However, I’m not entirely sure I feel as optimistic as Mr. Everitt. A 1.1% increase on last September’s figures is hardly a reversal of the 6.3% decline in van registrations for the year to date (compared to the first 9 months of 2011). Nor does it complete reverse the rolling year decline of 2.6%, although it’s certainly a move in the right direction.

My feeling is that if the plate change only delivered a 1.1% boost, we are likely to be back into flat or negative territory by the end of this month — although I would be very happy to be proved wrong!

SMMT commercial vehicle registration figures (courtesy of SMMT)

Big Vans vs. Little Vans

Interestingly, the mix of different types of light commercial vehicles continues to change. This year has seen fewer sub-2t and 2.5t-3.5t van sales, as this SMMT graph shows:

Light commercial vehicle registrations by type (courtesy of SMMT)

Truckin’ Ahead

For those that are interested, truck sales have continued to perform more strongly than van sales, especially in the light rigid (3.5t – 6.0t) category, where new registrations were up by 23.4% on the same period last year and are up 48.6% for the year to date.

Registrations of larger rigids have also grown strongly and are up 28% (6.0t – 16t) and 26% (>16t) on the year to date, although >16t recorded an 18% fall in registrations in September compred to September last year.

Truck registrations for 2011 and 2012 YTD, divided into rigid and artics -- rigids have gained strongly this year (courtesy of SMMT)

Artic sales are flagging and are down 6.2% on the year to date, although sales of 3-axle artics (by far the most popular), rose by 3% last month, perhaps because of the plate change effect.