UK commercial vehicle manufacturing fell by 20.5% in January 2013, compared to January 2012.

Falling export demand caused UK commercial vehicle manufacturing output to slump 20.5% in January this year, compared to the same period last year. CV output fell from 9,844 units to 7,822 vehicles, despite a 3.2% rise in domestic demand.

You can see the full horror of the figures below — export demand for UK-built CVs dropped by 37.2% in January:

Source: SMMT

Mike Baunton, the SMMT Interim Chief Executive, commented that this is a continuation of a trend that started in the final quarter of last year:

“Manufacturing of commercial vehicles in the UK covers a diverse spectrum of vehicles from light panel vans to heavy trucks, as well as minibuses, double-deckers and luxury coaches. UK registrations of trucks were strong through most of 2012, but dropped off in the final quarter impacting output. However, domestic demand for buses and coaches grew significantly through 2012 on the back of government incentives and a wider focus on public transport.”

The big problem for the industry, however, is that output shows no sign of recovering to anywhere close to its 2008/9 highs, as this graph shows:

Commercial vehicle manufacturing output from Jan 2008 – Jan 2013 (graph courtesy of SMMT)

February’s data may provide a more uplifting picture, but somehow I doubt it. Part of the problem, at least, is that there aren’t many  volume van manufacturers left in the UK. Many of the manufacturers are niche or low volume (trucks and buses sell in far smaller numbers than vans) and with the upcoming closure of Ford’s Southampton plant, this situation will just get worse.

Just as well the car manufacturing industry is doing well, with forecasts now suggesting that output could approach 2 million cars per year by 2016 (up from 1.58 million in 2012).