A BCA van auction in progress

You can prove pretty much anything you want with statistics, but in my view last month’s used van figures from Manheim and BCA suggest that the used van market is flattening out and that used volumes are rising to reflect the 18% rise in new van registrations seen so far this year.

Let me explain why.

BCA: According to BCA, the average used van price was £5,615 last month, the third-highest figure on record. Prices reached an all-time high in August (when I flagged up that the vehicle mix might be changing), since when they’ve averaged lower for each of the three consecutive months.

According to BCA’s monthly figures, average price, mileage, age and sale vs. CAP % have all remained fairly flat over the last three months, suggesting that rising new van registrations are having an impact on the market. Frustratingly, BCA never includes any information about volumes in its monthly used van reports, so it’s not possible to see how, if at all, this is changing.

Manheim: However, Manheim does comment on volume in its monthly reports, and this month’s report makes it clear that volumes are changing — presumably with similar read across to BCA’s auction halls.

According to Manheim, there was “a significant influx of de-fleet volume year-on-year” in November.

In plain English, this means that more vans were de-fleeted and sent to auction in November 2014 than in November 2013. Commenting on November’s figures, James Davis, the firm’s director of commercial vehicles, said:

“It is heartening to see the typical seasonal de-fleet pattern returning this year. Supply continues to track behind demand, so it promises a stable end to the year and a fantastic kick start to 2015, just as we predicted earlier in the year.

Traditionally, the plate changes act as a catalyst for new vehicle purchasing. This then leads to an increase of ex-fleet vehicles coming to market as they are replaced.”

Manheim’s figures were interesting for another reason — they showed a big increase in knackered old large vans coming to the market, to the extent that the average sale price of large panel vans fell by 13.7% in November. According to the firm, nearly half the large panel vans sold during the month had an average age of more than seven years. Similarly, more than half of all small panel vans sold had an average age of eight years.

These figures clearly imply that companies which have delayed fleet replacement cycles are now acting, disposing of well-used old vans and — probably — re-entering the new market, as part of the 18% surge in new van registrations seen so far this year.

I say: I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again — I’m convinced the used van market has peaked and 2015 will see a fairly stagnant performance, with increased price weakness for any vans that are more than a few years old and are not in decent condition.