Sometimes, statistics just play out the way you want them to. Last month, I suggested that the UK’s flat commercial vehicle output in November could herald the end of a long decline and the start of something better.

Today, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) confirmed that this was exactly what happened.

CV production rose by 12.6% in the UK last month, according to the latest figures from the SMMT. This was driven by a collossal 177% increase in home demand, that I suspect is due to production ramping up of the new Vauxhall Vivaro — gains that may not be sustainable in the medium term. However, the picture is clearly brighter than it has been for a long time:

Data courtesy of SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)

This is what Mike Hawes, the SMMT’s chief executive, had to say about the figures:

“The growth of commercial vehicle manufacturing output in December represents a turning point in the sector’s fortunes,” said Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive. “A ramping up of new model production, as well as a thriving home market, is expected to yield a stronger 2015, while the effects of restructuring in 2013 will no longer be felt.”

To finish off, I’ve included two graphs which show how CV production has changed since 2008, and highlight the nascent recovery the industry appears to be starting to enjoy:

(L-R) CV output from 2008-2014 and the % change in quarterly output during 2014, compared to the equivalent quarter of 2013

All we need now is for the €1.1tn of quantitative easing planned for the eurozone to take effect and boost export demand — UK manufacturers might then be off to the races…