After September’s remarkable 100% rise in UK van and truck manufacturing output, October’s figures were bound to be a little more modest.
In truth, the 100% rise this September was the result of new production being phased in from last October at Vauxhall’s Luton plant, where production of the outgoing Vivaro model ended in August 2014 and was subsequently replaced by the new Vivaro.
In 2013, Vauxall built 44,000 Vivaro vans. If you compare that number to the figures in the table below, it’s clear that the Vivaro is a dominant factor in UK CV sales.
Notwithstanding this, the latest numbers from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) suggest that momentum remains strong:
| CV manufacturing | Oct-14 | Oct-15 | % Change | YTD-14 | YTD-15 | % Change |
| Total | 7,235 | 7,995 | 10.5% | 57,981 | 79,401 | 36.9% |
| Home | 4,372 | 4,214 | -3.6% | 28,846 | 40,610 | 40.8% |
| Export | 2,863 | 3,781 | 32.1% | 29,135 | 38,791 | 33.1% |
| % export | 39.6% | 47.3% | 50.2% | 48.9% |
Data courtesy of SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)
Interstingly, home demand fell slightly last month. This may be linked to the fall in truck registrations reported last month and the more modest rate of van registrations. Sales growth has to slow at some point.
These figures are still good news for the UK economy as they show another rise in export demand, most of which goes to the EU. That suggests a double does of good news, in my view. Not only are UK companies exporting more, but a Europe-wide economic recovery could finally be picking up pace.
CV exports to Europe are now up by 33% so far this year, with domestic demand up 40% despite this month’s fall. Here’s how these figures look on a longer timescale:
Rolling year CV output 2008-2015 (courtesy of SMMT)
In total, nearly 8,000 vans, trucks and buses were built in the UK last month. Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, was keen to emphasise the benefits of the strong contribution being made by the European market:
“It’s great to see UK commercial vehicle manufacturing continuing its resurgence in the third quarter of 2015, with year-to-date figures still demonstrating impressive double-digit growth. Particularly encouraging is the growing demand for exports, fuelled by the recovery of the sector’s largest market, Europe.”
I don’t expect December to be a blockbuster month, but hopefully I’ll be wrong. More next month.