After hitting an all-time high of 371,830 in 2015, new van registrations fell by 4.3% in January, according to the latest figures from the SMMT.

Is this a cause for concern? Not necessarily. A small decline after five consecutive months of gains is hardly unusual. New van registrations have risen dramatically since 2013 and are perhaps due to slow down and return to more normal levels.

After all, I suspect that all the van operators who deferred vehicle replacements during the recession have probably now brought their vans up to date. This is certainly the impression I get from the number of new vans on the road, being run by businesses of all sizes.

Perhaps the best way to explain why a slowdown is quite logical is with this graph:

Graph courtesy of SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)

(Data c

Looking at the figures in more detail, 21,102 new light commercial vehicles (LCVs) were registered in January – the first month of decline since July 2015.

Demand for vans below 2.0 tonnes and between 2.0-2.5 tonnes fell by 11.8% and 23.3% respectively in the month, but better news came from the 2.5-3.5 tonne market – the sector’s largest – where a 2.1% increase in registrations continued the trend towards heavier vehicles, driven by operators’ desire to maximise fleet efficiency.

In terms of marques, the list of bestsellers contained few surprises, with Ford, VW and Vauxhall taking the lion’s share of registrations:

Graph courtesy of SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)

Commenting on this month’s figures, Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said he expected continued moderation this year with strong underlying demand:

“On the heels of a record-breaking 2015, which saw LCV registrations grow by an impressive 15.6%, January’s levelling off in demand comes as no surprise, and is indicative of what we can expect for the coming year. The overall market remains very strong, with business confidence high and the trend for home deliveries still growing.”