I commented last month on how a drop in domestic demand for UK-built vans and trucks had caused UK commercial vehicle production to drop 13% in March.

In April it was the turn of our European customers to hesitate. An 11.2% drop in export demand pushed total UK CV production down by 0.9% to 8,548 units, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Weaker European demand was however offset by a 13.6% rise in UK demand, which rose to 4,047 units.

What this shows, of course, is that one month’s data does not make a trend. Large fleet orders and seasonal factors can easily push CV demand up or down by a few hundred units each month, without signifying any change in overall market conditions.

However, Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive sounded a cautious note when commenting on the outlook for the rest of the year (my bolding):

“Although April saw a slight decrease in CV production, the sector continues to perform well with positive year-to-date figures. Following the substantial rise in volumes last year, we can expect production growth to ease slightly over coming months. However, with continued demand for British-built vans and trucks at home and around the world, the sector’s outlook is positive.”

At present, the overall trend remains positive — just. UK CV manufacturing output is up by 0.4% so far in 2016, as changes in home and export demand have largely offset each other:

Source: SMMT

It’s too early to get a clear idea of the trend for the year at this point, I’d suggest, although the situation certainly seems a little less clear cut than last year, as this graph shows:

Source: SMMT