Is the long-running surge in new van registrations starting to slow?

Van registrations rose by 6.2% in October, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) — a respectable enough result, but below the double-digit increases we’ve grown used to seeing.

There is a precedent, too. The rate of growth of new car registrations fell by 1.1% in October according to the SMMT, ending a 43-month run that’s seen annual car registrations rise from about 1.95m/year to more than 2.6m/year.

We will see: getting back to the commercial vehicle sector, here’s a breakdown of van and truck registrations from October:

UK van and truck registrations: 2015 and % change on 2014

Data courtesy of SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)

There is clearly still a strong demand for new vans, which seems to be being driven by Brits’ insatiable demand for online shopping. Businesses also have the confidence and financing options needed to update and renew their fleets, and as discussed before, may be switching from used to new purchases.

Here’s how the registrations have changed since January 2010:

Courtesy of SMMT.

Looking at van registrations in more detail, it’s the usual story: large 2.5-3.5t vans are the big sellers and the only category of van (excluding 4x4s and pickups) to show growth.

Registrations of vans in the 2.5-3.5t weight categroy rose by 17.5% to 17,766 last month, taking the total gain so far this year for this category to 21%.

These are, of course, the vans used by couriers. Van manufacturers appear to have much to thank internet retailers for!