UK commercial vehicle manufacturing output rose by 1.4% in June, bringing to a halt a run of steep falls, according to the latest data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

A 17% surge in domestic demand managed to overcome an 8% fall in export demand. The statistics are a sharp contrast to May’s figures, when export demand fell by 33% and home demand increased by just 1.4%. However, June’s figures still leave overall UK CV manufacturing output down by 13.5% so far this year, as these figures show:

Data courtesy of SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)

The fall in export demand is also a worry, in the longer term — a year ago, exports accounted for 61% of UK CV output, but that figure has now fallen to 51% and could still drop further. In the long run, home demand cannot absorb this kind of shortfall, but until the eurozone’s economic health improves, a recovery in export demand seems unlikely.

Total UK CV output vs. export demand — it seems unlikely that we will return to pre-recession levels, especially given the closure of Ford’s Transit plan in Southampton later in July.

Commenting on the figures, Nigel Base, SMMT Commercial Vehicle Manager, said:

“June’s CV output provides a welcome boost to our commercial vehicle industry, with volumes increasing 1.4% in the month, following a 17% surge in home market demand. Year-to-date volumes offer a slightly gloomier picture, falling 13.5% in the first half of 2013 as CV manufacturers continue to feel the effects of weak demand abroad.

The remainder of the year will be challenging, but strengthening UK demand is expected to support domestic manufacturers of vans, trucks buses and coaches.”

The rise in domestic demand does tally in with the fall we have seen in used van values over the last two months, and suggests that UK van operators are finally starting to move back towards a more typical replacement cycle, rather than the extended cycles we have seen in recent years.