After a brief resurgence in June, the UK’s commercial vehicle manufacturing sector returned to its year-long decline in July, as output fell by 11.8%.
So far this year, the story has been one of strong home demand, but poor export demand. However, this situation reversed last month, as UK CV exports rose by 20.3%, while home demand slumped by a massive 45%, compared to July 2012.
So far this year, total UK CV manufacturing output is down by 13.3% on a year-to-date basis (compared to the same period last year). The falls are likely to continue in August, as Ford’s Southampton factory closed down at the end of July, marking the end of Ford Transit production in the UK.
They say a picture is worth a thousand words, and these two graphs show how the UK’s commercial vehicle manufacturing has been decimated — and completely failed to recover — since 2008:
UK CV output remains at less than half the peak level reached in 2008, and output continues to decline on a year-on-year basis (graphs courtesy of SMMT)
Commenting on the figures, Nigel Base, SMMT Commercial Vehicle Manager, said:
“Commercial vehicle manufacturers continue to battle against weak demand, despite a moderate increase in exports in July,” said Nigel Base, SMMT Commercial Vehicle Manager. “The outlook for commercial vehicle manufacturing for the rest of the year continues to be tough, especially following the closure of the Ford facility in Southampton at the end of July. However, there are some areas, such as bus and coach production, where we are continuing to see growth as operators take advantage of the wide range of vehicles built in the UK.”
It’s certainly true that one or two UK CV manufacturers — such as bus builder Optare — are doing ok, but in general, the picture does seem pretty grim, as the SMMT figures for July show:
| CV manufacturing | Jul-12 | Jul-13 | % Change | YTD-12 | YTD-13 | % Change |
| Total | 9,004 | 7,942 | -11.8% | 65,100 | 56,459 | -13.3% |
| Home | 4,362 | 2,358 | -45.9% | 26,270 | 26,232 | -0.1% |
| Export | 4,642 | 5,584 | 20.3% | 38,830 | 30,227 | -22.2% |
| % export | 51.6% | 70.3% | 59.6% | 53.5% |
Data courtesy of www.smmt.co.uk
With UK CV manufacturing at half of pre-recession levels, you have to question whether the volume manufacturing sector of the UK’s CV industry will ever seriously recover — or whether we will depend on car manufacturing, which continues to grow, and was up by 7% in July, for our automotive exports.