Demand for UK-built commercial vehicles fell by 20% in May as export demand fell by a third, cancelling out a modest rise in domestic demand:

Data courtesy of SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)

This is a trend we have seen playing out for some time now, but the overall decline moderated in April, thanks to a surge in domestic demand. May’s 20% overall decline is greater than the 16.1% fall for the year-to-date, but the decline in export demand of 33.2% was broadly in line with the 31.5% decline seen so far this year.

“Commercial vehicle manufacturers continue to battle against weak demand, particularly abroad, with output sliding 20% in May. Demand for UK-built CVs in the home market grew moderately, but this was not enough to lessen the significant drop in export volumes,” said Nigel Base, SMMT Commercial Vehicle Manager. “2013 is going to be a hard year for the UK’s CV manufacturers but there are pockets of positivity with some areas of the industry experiencing growth as operators take advantage of the wide range of CVs built in the UK.”

SMMT CV manufacturing output in May, 2007-2013

However you look at these figures, they are pretty dire news. The graph on the right shows how the UK’s CV manufacturing industry has failed to recover from the recession.

Indeed, given the impending closure of Ford’s Transit plant at Southampton, it seems unlikely that the UK’s CV manufacturing capacity will recover to pre-2009 levels in the foreseeable future, as the loss of this factory removes a significant proportion of capacity from the industry.

Car manufacturing down

The decline in European demand is now hitting UK car production too, which is now down by 0.6% on the year, thanks to a 6% fall in export demand in May, which overwhelmed a 25% increase in domestic demand for the year-to-date.

I’m still astonished that the UK car market is performing so strongly — given the lacklustre state of the economy, it doesn’t seem to make sense, but there you go.