Another month, another dismal set of commercial vehicle manufacturing figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
UK CV manufacturing fell by 35.7% in November, compared to the same period the previous year, resulting in just 7,051 vehicles being produced. Last month’s fall takes the cumulative drop this year to 21.5% — just 82,535 commercial vehicles have been built in the UK this year:
| CV manufacturing | Nov-12 | Nov-13 | % Change |
YTD-12 | YTD-13 | % Change |
| Total | 10,974 | 7,051 | -35.7% | 105,188 | 82,535 | -21.5% |
| Home | 5,343 | 3,673 | -31.3% | 45,005 | 38,747 | -13.9% |
| Export | 5,631 | 3,378 | -40.0% | 60,183 | 43,788 | -27.2% |
| % export | 51.3% | 47.9% | 57.2% | 53.1% |
Data courtesy of SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)
The recent surge in new van and truck registrations hasn’t been reflected in the CV manufacturing figures, and isn’t likely to — most of the vans and trucks on our roads are built abroad, with the honourable exception, among volume manufacturers, of Vauxhall, whose Vivaro medium van is built at Luton, and will continue to be so when it is replaced with a new model in the near future.
Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, tried to put a positive spin on the figures:
“Ongoing weak European demand and changes to UK manufacturing operations impacted commercial vehicle production in November. While we expect the downward trend to continue for a few months yet, CV manufacturing in the UK has a solid base from which to build with more than 200 vans, trucks and buses rolling off domestic production lines every day.”
I’m not completely convinced. If people are buying more trucks and vans, but they’re not buying the ones built in the UK, what’s likely to happen next? I hope I’m wrong, obviously, but it’s not something I’d bet money on, and this graph shows why, I hope:
CV manufacturing output is now lower than it was in 2009, with no sign of any recovery.
CV manufacturing in the UK is now much lower than it was in 2009, and although it’s fair to put some of the blame on exports, it’s clear from the top line on the graph that domestic demand for home-built CVs isn’t that strong either.