Commercial manufacturing in the UK fell by a further 33.8% in October, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).  The total fall so far this year is now 19.9%, thanks to a 25.9% slump in export demand and an 11.6% fall in home demand:

Data courtesy of SMMT

In fairness, some of this decline is what analysts like to call ‘structural’ — in this case, the closure of the Ford Transit factory at Southampton removed a chunk of production that is unlikely to be replaced, and leave Vauxhall as the only volume CV manufacturer in the UK.

This article sounds like too many that I’ve written before, but that’s because it seems to be the same story every month, at the moment. Take a look at these figures:

• September: -27.5%
• August: -51%
• July: -11.8%
• June: +1.4%

Despite the increase in van registrations we’ve seen over the last three months, few of these vehicles are made in the UK. Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, says he expects the downtrend to continue for the rest of the year:

“The downward trend in CV production continued in October, given continually low levels of demand across the EU combined and structural and model changes in the UK,” said Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive. “Despite some areas of good news, with UK bus and truck manufacturing growing in the month, the domestic CV manufacturing outlook remains negative for the rest of the year.”

There was better news in the car sector, however, where output rose by 17.4% in October, boosted by a 52.4% jump in domestic demand and and 11.4% rise in export demand, marking the second consecutive month of rising European demand, after a long period of decline.