As I noted recently, used van prices have now passed their pre-recession peak, despite much higher age and mileage. Some of this is due to the improved quality and efficiency of newer vans, which have prompted some fleets to extend their renewal cycles. However, a bigger factor, in my view, is that many small businesses have opted to buy used, for cash, rather than seeking finance to fund the acquisition of new vans.

That may now be changing, as this year has seen a big increase in new van registrations, but the latest figures from remarketing specialists Autorola suggest that demand for used models remains strong: the average price of used vans sold through Autorola’s online remarketing platform has risen by nearly 10%, from £9,605 in Q1 2014 to £10,513 in Q2 2014, an increase of £907 and an all time average high for Autorola.

One caveat: some of this change may be due to the lower average mileage and newer registration plate of vans sold in the second quarter — the average age and mileage of stock in Q2 was 2012/26,377 miles, compared with Q1 (2011/31,927 miles), and bucking the trend seen over the last couple of years.

Each quarter Autorola sells a range of stock from rental companies, utilities, manufacturers and franchised dealers, but currently the 24-30 month old stock is making the strongest money. Neil Frost, Autorola UK’s operations director, explains that the poor condition of older stock is driving demand for a limited supply of newer vans:

“More ex-fleet stock is coming back into the used market at 5-6 years of age with higher mileages and in a tired condition. This has helped increase demand for the newer used stock on our platform.

“SMEs are still buying used vans typically under £10,000 as they continue to grow, but struggle to get finance to buy a new van. With the holiday season nearly upon us and with the economy continuing to thrive it will be interesting to see whether prices stabilise in Q3 2014 or continue to rise.”

It’s too early to say how the second half of 2014 is going to pan out, but I suspect that if new van registrations remain as strong as they are currently, the used market may begin to weaken slightly in 2015, as the balance of supply and demand shifts in favour of used buyers.