CV output has now fallen nearly as far as it did in the depths of the 2009/10 recession.

The headline says it all, really — the decline in UK commercial vehicle manufacturing (which includes vans) accelerated in September, with total output down by 27.5%, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

The decline breaks down into two main categories; a 16% drop in home market demand, and a 37.7% fall in export market demand, which basically means Europe.

Mike Hawes, who is the SMMT’s chief executive, says — somewhat unconvincingly — that there is some cause for hope:

“CV production remained subdued in September, with continuing uncertainty in the EU and restructuring of UK operations,” said Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive. “While the overall market is striving against tough conditions, there remains cause for optimism in some areas, with the truck sector out-performing the market in September.”

Here’s a summary of the key figures:

Data courtesy of SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)

Car & engine manufacturing powering ahead

Remarkably, the decline seen in the CV sector is not affecting the engine or car manufacturing sector at all. Car output rose by 9.9% in September, while engine manufacturing was up by 8.3%. The decline in the UK’s CV manufacturing industry, where output is down by around 23% since 2011, is a singular thing.

As I’ve mentioned before, part of the problem is the closure of Ford’s Southampton Transit factory, but there must be more to it than that. Sadly, the SMMT doesn’t publish a more detailed breakdown of its figure, so it isn’t easy to say where exactly the decline is coming from — and how much of it is due to weak export demand, rather than cuts to manufacturing capacity.

However, unless this trend reverses, it seems likely that there will be further structural reductions in Britain’s CV manufacturing capacity — because it can’t stay under-utlilised indefinitely.

Commercial vehicle manufacturing output collapsed in August, falling by 51% as a combination of weak demand, the Ford Southampton closure and seasonal maintenance periods impacted production.

According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), just 3,694 commercial vehicles were built in the UK in August, down by 51% from August 2012, when 7,608 were built:

Data courtesy of SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)

August is traditionally the weakest month of the year, but this year has been pretty disastrous, not least because of the closure of the Ford Transit factory in Southampton. These two graphs show the full horror of the situation — the UK’s CV manufacturing industry has simply collapsed since 2009, with no prospect of any improvement:

Total CV manufacturing is less than half its peak pre-recession level, while CV exports have shrunk to almost nothing. (Graphs courtesy of SMMT)

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, says that he expects the rest of the year to be pretty bad, too:

“Focused almost entirely on the European market, UK commercial vehicle manufacturing has been impacted by ongoing uncertainly in Eurozone countries, model changes and restructuring of some domestic operations. We expect overall commercial vehicle output to remain negative through the rest of the year, but some sectors may fare better with recent increases in demand for UK-built trucks and buses.”

Given that total CV manufacturing output is down by 16.6% for the year to date, compared to the same period last year, any improvement would be worthwhile, but with unemployment still rife in Southern Europe, and French and German van operators traditionally loyal to home-market brands, it’s hard to see where the improvement is going to come from, unless the UK economy picks up unexpectedly quickly.