Van registrations fell by 12.5% in August, reversing July’s gains.
As I suggested in my report last month, July’s sudden surge in new van registrations was a fluke, probably caused by one or two large fleet deliveries and a bunch of pre-registered vans.
Whatever the reasons for July’s 10% rise in van registrations, they weren’t repeated in August, which saw a 12.5% fall in the number of vans that were registered.
The latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) show that the van sector looks likely to be the last to recover from the recession, as Paul Everitt, SMMT Chief Executive, explains:
“Trucks have performed well throughout 2012 with volumes up 20% for the year-to-date, but vans have struggled and look set to end the year almost 10% behind last year’s levels. Last year we saw heavy trucks leading recovery, now medium-weight trucks are performing well, up 40% for the year so far. The economic situation in Europe and around the world is far from certain, but if business and buyer confidence improves, we’d anticipate the van market recovering in 2013.”
Although I think expectations of a strong recovery for the van market in 2013 may be a little optimistic, I can see the logic in this argument. I have commented before that van sales are most vulnerable to being postponed or delayed, as many van buyers are the kind of small businesses and tradesmen for whom finance is hard to come buy and cash flow is tight at present.
Although van sales are down 8.4% on 2011 for the year to date, on a rolling year basis — i.e. the last 12 months — van sales are only down by 1.4% on the previous period, suggesting that things are not getting much worse, even if they are not improving.
You can see the latest sales trends on the graph below, although the changes in van registrations are not all that clear due to the size of the scale:
Trucks Steady
Truck registrations were stable in August, with 2,408 new units registered through the month, leaving truck registrations up by 20.9% on a rolling year basis, at 47,766.