Is the used van market turning in favour of buyers?

BCA van auctionAverage used van prices fell slightly in September, according the latest data from auctioneer BCA, despite the average age of vans coming under the hammer at auctioneer BCA continued to fall.

This marks the continuation of a trend I flagged up in August and which appeared to be confirmed by sales data from Manheim last month.

In my view, we’re now seeing a gradual fall in used van prices, although it’s worth emphasising that the used market does remain very strong, with prices at near-record levels and average sale prices of more than 100% of CAP values.

Falling age is key

Although the average price realised on used vans by BCA was £5,560 in September — the third highest figure on record — average age fell by three months, or nearly 5%, to 56.39 months, compared to the same period last year. This resulted in a corresponding fall in the sales vs. CAP price ratio, suggesting that vans are becoming slightly more reasonably priced:

All vans

Avg Age (mnths)

Avg Mileage

Avg Value

Sale vs CAP

Sept 2013

59.33

80,217

£5,158

105.19%

Sept 2014

56.39

80,591

£5,560

103.94%

Data courtesy of British Car Auctions (BCA)

Duncan Ward, BCA’s General Manager – Commercial Vehicles, says that economic and seasonal factors, combined with the long-running shortage of used supply is keeping demand strong:

“There can be little doubt that the improving economic background is giving a boost to the used LCV market, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) remain positive about future prospects.  The shortage of good retail quality stock is helping to keep values firm and competition is high for well-presented vans in good colours.”

“We are now moving into the time of year when the demand for parcel, courier and delivery vans of all types and capacities starts to ramp up, and this will help to keep values firm over the coming weeks.”

I don’t expect any dramatic changes in market conditions for the rest of this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see things quieten down a bit in the New Year, especially if the current strong growth in new van registrations — which ultimately increases the supply of and reduces demand for used vans — continues.

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