The new Vauxhall Vivaro was the second biggest seller in the van market during the first quarter of 2015.

The average price of a used van at auctioneer BCA rose by £84 to £5,616 in March, but prices remained below their January peak of £5,870, and once again both average age and average mileage fell, diluting the effect of the price rise.

Interestingly, the average sale price relative to the CAP book price fell from 104.03% in March 2014 to 101.50% in March 2015, suggesting that buyers are less willing to pay over book than they were — or that the improved choice of stock means they don’t need to.

Comments from BCA’s Head of Commercial Vehicles, Duncan Ward, suggests both factors could be relevant:

“We continue to see rising volumes of poor condition or similar model vans reaching the used market, which is creating some pressure on average values. We have been predicting a tipping point in used values for some time and both fleet/lease and dealer part-exchange vans averaged lower values in March 2015 than a year ago.”

Surge in new registrations

Certainly the new van registration figures suggest that an influx of used vans to the auction market may be likely: new commercial vehicle registrations hit an all-time record of 108,456 during the first quarter of 2015. This puts the CV industry on-track to edge ahead of last year’s full-year total of 384,120 registrations, although it is of course still too early to be sure.

Van and truck registrations 2005-2015 (courtesy of SMMT)

In the van sector alone, 97,775 new vans were registered during the first three months of 2015 — 22.3% more than during the same period last year, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), which provided these figures.

Topping the popularity list was the Ford Transit Custom, and all three of the most popular vans came from the medium van segment, suggesting that this remains key in the UK market:

UK Top 10 New Vans Jan-March 2015

(Data compiled by SMMT)

Highlighting strong interest in the sector, this week’s Commercial Vehicle Show at the Birmingham NEC is expected to be one of the biggest and busiest for some years. A raft of new models will be unveiled at the show, including new vans from Citroen, Dacia, Fiat, Mercedes-Benz and Peugeot.

What’s next?

I expect to see more of the same this year, with the used van market weakening (or rather returning to historic norms) and the new van market remaining strong.

Later this year, or perhaps next year, I expect new volumes to flatten out somewhat, which should be reflected in improved stability in the used market.