If the UK’s commercial vehicle manufacturing output is anything to go by, a European economic recovery is starting to take hold.
The reason I say this is that according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), UK CV exports rose by 79.1% to 5,131 units in November, up from 2,865 in November last year. Most of these exports go to EU countries.
Inded, so big was the rise in demand from EU countries that a 12.5% fall in demand from UK buyers went almost unnoticed. The UK’s total CV production rose by 24.6% in November to 8,813 units.
| CV manufacturing | Nov-14 | Nov-15 | % Change | YTD-14 | YTD-15 | % Change |
| Total | 7,073 | 8,813 | 24.6% | 65,054 | 88,214 | 35.6% |
| Home | 4,208 | 3,682 | -12.5% | 33,054 | 44,292 | 34.0% |
| Export | 2,865 | 5,131 | 79.1% | 32,000 | 43,922 | 37.3% |
| % export | 40.5% | 58.2% | 49.2% | 49.8% |
Data courtesy of SMMT
Commenting on the figures, Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive said:
“The recovery in UK CV manufacturing this year has been good to see, with consistently strong growth in almost every month. November’s performance was driven principally by production for export, underlining the importance of the EU as the sector’s key overseas market.”
What’s interesting about the figures in the table above is that if you ignore the monthly data and focus on the year-to-date (YTD) figures, you can see that growth in demand has been pretty equal across the UK and export markets, at about 35%. It’s only the timing that has been different. This is also evident from the graph below:
UK CV output: rolling year totals from November 2008 to November 2015 (courtesy of SMMT)
It will be interesting to see where output levels out — i.e. how much volume production capacity is left in the UK following the closure of Ford’s Transit plant in Southampton in 2013.
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