Used van values reached a new record in February, according to the latest data from auction specialists BCA, with big increases in the sale values of ex-fleet and lease vans overriding a small drop in the value of dealer part-exchange vans.

The average February figure of £4,789 for LCVs was the highest on record for any month since Pulse began reporting in 2005. Average age rose by two months to 58.5 months, while average mileage declined by 2,000 miles to 78,700 miles.

Duncan Ward BCA’s General Manager – Commercial Vehicles commented commented:

“Despite values being at record levels, prices are high largely as a result of the constricted supply, and – seasonal variations aside – we should expect a similar picture across much of 2013.”

“While stock remains in short supply, corporate vendors are enjoying some exceptional values. We know from experience that values cannot keep rising and there will inevitably be an adjustment at some stage.  However, we are still in uncharted waters four years on from the registration crash of 2008 and 2009 and how this will manifest itself is impossible to judge at this stage.  With the Easter break often representing a watershed in demand, we might see some pressure on values in April.”

Used van values reached their highest level since BCA Pulse records began in 2005.

Year-on-year, February 2013 was ahead by £517 or 12.1%, with age and mileage rising over the period:

Fleet & lease vans

Following a 1% rise in January and a 5.2% rise in December, values in the fleet & lease LCV sector improved again in February, rising by £386 (7.1%) to £5,823 – the third consecutive month where a record average value has been achieved for corporate CV stock.  Performance against CAP improved by a point to 103.3%, while retained value against Manufacturer Recommended Price improved by over two points to 34.9% from 32.7% in January.

Year-on-year, the value evolution for corporate stock is even more pronounced – February 2013 was £875 (17.6%) ahead of the same month in 2012 – with average age and mileage reasonably stable.

BCA Pulse data for fleet and lease van sales Feb 2013

Part-exchange vans

February part-exchange values were the third highest since Pulse began reporting in 2005, despite falling back by £101 (3.1%) to £3,095 compared to January.   CAP comparisons improved by half a point to 105.3% and continue to outperform the fleet & lease sector by around three points.  Year-on-year values remain well ahead by £325 or 11.7%, with average age and mileage rising in 2013.

BCA Pulse data for part-ex van sales Feb 2013

Nearly-new vans

Nearly-new values fell back in February for the third consecutive month, averaging £9,431.  CAP performance improved by three points to 101.6%.  As always, this has to be taken in the context of the very low volumes reaching the market and the model mix factor.

SNAFU?

Overall, these statistics paint a picture of a market that’s ever so slightly messed up. New van registrations remain subdued and nearly-new vans are in desperately short supply, meaning that buyers will pay over the odds for good ex-fleet and lease stock. Meanwhile, dealer part-ex stock that may be pretty tatty is continuing to fetch well over CAP.

The biggest problem, as Duncan Ward commented, is that there is no quick way of resolving this situation. Even in the unlikely event that new van registrations continue to rise, it will take three or four years for this improved supply to filter through to the used market — during which period used van buyers will continue to have to pay more and get less for their money.

I guess perhaps the secret is to buy well and extend replacement cycles — but that isn’t always as easy as it sounds.