A grand total of 29,784 new vans hit the roads in November — a 20-year high — according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

A 43% surge in registrations of vans in the 2.0-2.5t weight bracket drove the gains in total registrations, but much of this gain was offset by falls in other segments. Total van registrations were only 2.5% higher than in November 2015:

November 2016 monthly LCV registrations (Source: SMMT)

What’s more, I’d hazard a guess that a 43% increase in registrations of 2.0-2.5t vans corresponds to the delivery of a major fleet order. Perhaps Royal Mail, for example. Registrations of 2.0-2.5t vans are down by 4.2% so far this year, so I don’t think this has suddenly become a fast-growing segment of the market.

November 2016 year-to-date LCV registrations (source: SMMT)

Indeed, only two classes of LCV have seen growth across the year so far. Pickups, which are up by 15% to 43,875 units, and 2.5t-3.5t vans, registrations of which are up 7% to 216,046. Interestingly, registrations of big vans (2.5-3.5t) actually fell slightly last month.

It’s probably too early to say whether any of these figures signify changing trends. Comments from Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, certainly seem to suggest that he’s unclear about the outlook:

“The new van market’s growth in November is welcome news and an encouraging sign of ongoing business confidence. With almost 350,000 light commercials registered so far this year, the sector remains on track to beat 2015’s record-breaking performance. For this success to continue in 2017 and beyond, however, it is essential that the economic conditions that have kept this sector so buoyant in recent years are maintained.”

One thing we can be sure of is that Ford maintained its stranglehold on the LCV market last month. The group sold more than twice as many vans as second-placed Volkswagen:

Source: SMMT (www.smmt.co.uk)

Demand for new vans fell by 4.5% to 26,950 units in October, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). But total registrations for the year-to-date remain up by 2.0%, according to the trade organisation.

October’s figures suggest that total registrations were dragged down by a significant fall in sub-2.0t and 2.5-3.5t models:

New van registrations October 2016 (source: SMMT)

The SMMT figures for 2016 so far show that both sub-2.0t and 2.0-2.5t vans have seen a fall in registrations this year. Only 2.5-3.5t models have seen overall gains:

New van registrations year-to-date Oct 2016 (source: SMMT)

Commenting on the figures, Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said:

“Following the sector’s very strong performance in 2015, a levelling off in demand was expected, so this month’s decline comes as no surprise. Overall, the market remains robust, with the number of van registrations in the first 10 months of 2016 outperforming any other year on record. Maintaining business confidence for LCV operators will be critical to this sector’s future performance.”

I agree that some flattening off of the market was likely after last year’s bumper performance. It will be interesting to see how much further sales trends have to fall before reaching stable levels.

October’s best sellers

It should come as no surprise to anyone that Ford retained its position as the UK’s best-selling LCV brand in October. Running a distant second was Volkswagen. Here’s a rundown of the full top ten for October and for 2016 to date:

LCV best sellers – October 2016 (source: SMMT)

Van sales may be falling, but with more than 30% of the market, Ford’s position appears unassailable.

The Vauxhall Vivaro is one of the main volume-produced commercial vehicles builtin in the UK.

UK commercial vehicle manufacturers received a boost in September after export orders rose by 16.5% compared September 2015.

However, today’s figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) also show that the rise in export demand was offset by an 18% drop in demand from UK buyers.

The end result was that UK CV production fell by 0.7% to 9,742 units in September.

Source: SMMT

Why did demand change last month? The weak pound is probably making UK vehicles priced in euros slightly cheaper to buy, hence rising export demand. The switch to Euro 6 emissions may have dampened demand in the UK, as some buyers will have aimed to buy cheaper Euro 5 models while they were still available.

Commenting on the figures, Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said:

“The drop in production last month comes as no surprise following the regulatory changes last year which significantly altered fleet renewal patterns. Despite the decline, the sector is broadly stable, with output remaining at a high level. Maintaining the competitive trading conditions currently delivered through membership of the single market and which underpin the strength of the sector will be critical to future performance.”

News today that Nissan will produce the next version of its popular Qashqai car at its Sunderland plant suggests that at least one manufacturer is confident about the future of automotive manufacturing in the UK.

Today’s news about the Qashqai comes just a week after Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn met with Prime Minister Theresa May. I suspect the close timing of these two events isn’t a coincidence… I wonder what was said — and if other manufacturers will follow suit/receive the same assurances?