UK commercial vehicle (CV) production volumes surged higher in June 2015, thanks in part to a surge of buying ahead of new type approval regulations. The peak figure of 9.821 units seen in June 2015 was 50% higher than production in May 2015 and was unlikely to be equalled this year.

And so it transpires. UK CV production totalled 7,686 units in June 2016, 21.7% lower than during the same period last year and down slightly from May‘s figure of 7,748 units.

Total CV production so far in 2016 is 2.2% lower than during the first six months of last year, thanks to a 7% slump in domestic demand.

These figures would have been worse were it not for continued strong export demand. Export sales are up by 2.7% so far this year, which suggests to me that at least some eurozone economies are continuing to grow:

Data courtesy of SMMT.

Commenting on the figures, Mike Hawes — SMMT chief executive — said that they emphasised the importance of EU export markets to the UK automotive sector:

“Disruption to fleet renewal patterns triggered by type approval changes last year meant manufacturing output spiked by more than half in June 2015.¹ As a result, this year’s June performance was always going to be negative so the drop is no surprise.

“The market remains at a high level, buoyed by continuing resurgence in key EU markets, with more than half of UK CV output sold overseas. Maintaining the competitive trading conditions currently afforded by EU membership, including free access to major international markets, will be critical to this sector’s future performance.”

I believe these figures should be seen in a relatively positive context. June’s volume of 7,686 units is 21% higher than the 6,348 units produced two years ago, in June 2014. That’s solid progress given the mixed economic conditions in the UK’s export markets.

New van registrations rose by 3.0% to a record level of 191,996 units during the first half of 2016, according to the latest figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

The growth has been driven by strong demand for heavier 2.5-3.5t vans and pickups. Registrations in these two segments rose by 11.3% and 17.3% respectively in June.

This is consistent with the results seen in previous months. During the first half of this year, pickup registrations rose by 10.9%. Heavy van registrations rose by 12.7% to 120,395 units — that’s 62.7% of all vans registered during the first half of 2016.

This graph shows how demand for new vans has exploded in the UK since 2010:

UK van registrations Jun ’10-Jun ’16 (courtesy of SMMT)

Mike Hawes, Chief Executive, SMMT, said:

“It’s been an encouraging first half for the new LCV sector and, while growth may be slower than the record levels seen last year, the market remains strong with all the signs pointing towards a healthy performance in 2016. Maintaining economic certainty for van operators will be key to the sector’s ongoing success.”

Best-selling brands

Ford’s revamped range of vans has maintained an iron grip on the best seller tables so far this year, as this graphic shows:

The best-selling LCV manufacturers so far in 2016 (courtesy of SMMT)

Teasing out a few statistics from these figures shows us that Ford sold 163% more vans than second-placed Vauxhall in June. Ford’s sales in June were almost equal to the combined sales of Vauxhall, Volkswagen and Renault.

Across the year to date, Ford has sold 170% more vans than second-placed Volkswagen and nearly as many as VW, Vauxhall and Peugeot combined! It’s interesting to see that VW just edged Vauxhall into second place, despite the supposed impact of the emissions scandal.

Ford is absolutely dominating the UK van market at the moment. It’s hard to see this changing in the near future, given depth and breadth of Ford’s range and the firm’s reputation with British buyers. After all, the phrase Transit van doesn’t even have to mean a Ford anymore — it’s just understood to refer to a large panel van.