Used van values remain near record levels, according to leading vehicle auctioneers BCA, despite the expected seasonal decline and the fact that average age and mileage continue to climb.

According to BCA’s latest Pulse Report, average used LCV values fell back in November by £197 (4.4%) to £4,250.  Both average age and mileage rose over the month to 59.7 months while average mileage increased to 81,400.

Despite the fall, price performance remained on a par with much of 2012, with average values at near record levels in the fleet/lease sector, while the low volume nearly-new sector recorded the highest monthly value since Pulse began reporting in 2005.  Performance against CAP average fell over the month by a point to just under 100%.

Year-on-year, November 2012 was behind by £54 or 1.2%, with both average age and average mileage increasing over the period, as the figures in this table show:

Source: Data courtesy of BCA

The fall in van registrations since 2008 means that supply continues to be tight, meaning that even poor quality vans continue to sell, as BCA’s General Manager Duncan Ward explains:

“Typically when the market eases, buyers leave the poorest condition vehicles behind but with the shortage of stock in the marketplace, sale volumes held up well in November and were on a par with October’s figures.”

The graph below shows just how strong used LCV values have remained since 2010, despite a weak economy and a rising mileage and age profile as fleets keep vehicles on the road longer before replacing them:

BCA Average LCV Used Values 2010-2012 (Nov 2012)

Duncan Ward again:

“Overall, prices remain strong when taking the longer view and average values during 2012 have probably exceeded the expectations of most market watchers when placed in the context of the relatively weak economy and low business confidence.”

In other words, it’s remarkable what a really tight supply can do to the market — especially when finance for new vans becomes harder to get and less attractive.

Stock shortages mean that used vans keep on getting more expensive — despite rising age and mileage.

According to BCA’s latest Pulse Report, average used LCV values improved in October by £223 (5.2%) to £4,447, with year-on-year figures ahead by £144 or 3.3%.  Average age fell slightly to just under 58 months while average mileage increased to nearly 79,000.   Price performance was strong across the board, with average values reaching record levels in the fleet/lease sector.

Performance against CAP average improved over the month by a point to 101.8%, although it’s worth pointing out that this is nearly 2% less than at the same time last year, suggesting a slight weakening in demand (or improvement in supply).

Year-on-year, October 2012 was £146 (3.4%) ahead of the same month in 2011, with both average age and average mileage increasing over the period:

Duncan Ward BCA’s General Manager – Commercial Vehicles commented:

“October has been a relatively strong month for LCV sales and average values improved compared to September.   Real and ‘virtual’ footfall at LCV sales has increased significantly and the on-going shortage of retail quality stock is keeping values very firm indeed.”

As this graph shows, used van values have remained firm and drifted gradually higher since 2010:

Average used LCV values 2010-2012 (Oct 2012, courtesy of BCA)

Duncan Ward was keen to emphasis that as ever, quality vehicles attract a strong premium and pretty much fly off the shelves:

“Any vehicle in clean condition will attract the buyers’ attention, including older, higher mileage vehicles if they are well presented.  As a direct consequence, values continue to rise for dealer P/X stock, where average CAP performance is actually higher than the corporate sector. Buyers will compete strongly for any vehicle with an unusual specification or modification such as crew cab vans, cherry pickers, tippers and dropsides and we are now seeing the upswing in demand for LWB panel vans, Lutons and fridge vans ahead of the Christmas period.”

Considering that new van registrations continue to fall and are far below the levels seen in 2007, strong demand for used models looks set to remain firm, which means we will all have to keep on paying more for older, higher-mileage vans!